Peak Oil Conference Discusses Shale Gas’s Prospects

Speaking at an Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas conference in October, a Texas-based geological consultant warned that U.S. shale gas reserves are likely overestimated.

Arthur Berman pointed to analyses demonstrating that shale gas plays do not contain as much retrievable gas as some suggest. In contrast to the industry position, he said he expects yields will not be the ample 100-year supply that is being widely discussed, said the Associated Press.

Unconventional drilling will not be able to sustain profitability even if gas prices rise, suggested Berman.

Berman compared the current enthusiasm for shale gas to the pre-mortgage crisis expectation that housing prices could rise indefinitely.

Randy Udall, the group’s co-founder, noted that the 10 percent jump in production seen over the last four years was a result of doubling the drilling rate—meaning that sustaining current production would require a lot of continued development.

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