New ARB Analysis Says Climate Rules Won’t Harm Economy

New analysis from California’s Air Resources Board concludes that climate regulations will create 2 million jobs in the state and result in $3.8 billion in fuel savings by 2020.

Petroleum dependent industries will ultimately benefit from regulation “but will have to go through a transition as they make investments in different kinds of fuels,” said ARB Chairwoman Mary Nichols. Renewable energy sectors “will continue to benefit.”

The report is the latest addition to ongoing debates over the possible economic impacts of climate change rules.

A group called AB 32 Implementation Group has warned that a cap-and-trade program could cost a family of four as much as $818 in its first year of implementation, with that amount growing to $2800 by 2020. Group members include the California Manufacturers & Technology Association and the California Chamber of Commerce.

Meanwhile, a report released earlier in March by the state’s nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) said that the ARB’s 2008 economic models “may overstate” the positive job effect of AB 32 implementation and suggested that the jobs impact in the near term “is likely to be negative,” though it also added that the jobs effect would “likely be modest in comparison to the overall size of the state’s economy.”

The LAO report noted that jobs effects were complicated and hard to predict, since the economy overall would probably see “gains in some occupations (including so-called green jobs) and losses in others (primarily involving fossil fuel-related energy production).”

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