Scientist Admits Glacier Melt Prediction Was Unfounded

A scientist whose claim that Himalayan glaciers would melt by 2035 appeared in the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recently said that the assertion was not based on peer-reviewed research and that it had been made to “impact policy makers and politicians.”

The claim, which appeared in literature belonging to environmental group WWF, was based on 1999 interviews with a glaciologist and included arithmetical errors related to the speed at which glaciers were retreating.

According to London's Daily Mail, Dr. Murari Lal said his team knew the WWF report was “grey literature,” but that IPCC guidelines had been followed because they had not received any information that undermined the claim.

The IPCC’s stated role is to assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information “on a comprehensive, open and transparent basis… [and] be neutral with respect to policy.”

Documents related to the IPCC report’s formal review, however, indicate that reviewers did question the claim in light of certain well-known papers that seemed to contradict it. Although Dr. Lal’s team said the data would be revised, no changes were made to the claim between the draft and final versions.

An Austrian glacier expert says he contacted Dr. Lal several months before the publication of the IPCC report urging him to withdraw the claim. Dr. Lal says he never received that letter.

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