NASA and NERC Concerned About Possible Solar Disruption of Power Grid

Solar storms, among other geomagnetic disturbances, were one of a list of “high-impact, low-frequency” events recently identified by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation as threats to the bulk power system. If high-voltage transformers were destroyed in a solar surge, replacing them could take months or even years, warned the NERC report.

As regards solar storms, NASA scientists at the Space Weather Enterprise Forum recently discussed ways to protect Earth’s vulnerable systems from a period of high solar activity.

Richard Fisher, head of NASA’s Heliophysics Division, told Space.com that the U.S.’s technologically oriented society has developed “an unprecedented sensitivity” to solar storms, thanks to its reliance on not just electricity but on GPS navigation and electronically stored data, among other things. Meanwhile, it is generally agreed among scientists that the sun is likely now entering a period of increased activity.

The National Academy of Science warned in a 2008 report that a major solar storm could produce 20 times more economic damage than Hurricane Katrina.

Forecasting solar weather could help mitigate this damage if forecasts gave operators enough lead time to put satellites in “safe mode” and disconnect transformers to protect the grid from electrical surges.

A fleet of satellites deployed in the last decade or so will aid such forecasting with views of the solar surface, high-tech imaging of solar active regions, and measurements of solar winds. NASA is working with NOAA, which has a Space Weather Prediction Center based in Boulder, Colo., to manage these satellites.

The other two high-impact, low-frequency events identified by NERC were 1) pandemic illness and 2) coordinated cyber, physical or blended attack on the power grid. 

Pandemic illness is a concern because a major disease outbreak could decimate operating staff, leaving less-experienced individuals to restore power after outages.  A coordinated cyber or physical attack targeting multiple key system nodes could put the system outside the protection provided by traditional planning and operating criteria.

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